Earthquake prep seems quite stressful too. Other than having a good idea which areas are prone, is it difficult to predict when one is imminent?
Out of the various natural disasters, that’s one helpful thing. They’re very good at forecasting hurricanes these days. So at least you get a few days’ heads-up before it happens. Not sure that’s even possible with earthquakes, is it?
Kind of, but not in such an immediate and reliable way.
I'm specifically interested in the Cascadia Subduction zone. It's overdue for very big one. I've been studying the frequency of them over the course of the past 10, 000 years. I mean obviously, not personally, I'm only 43
The only thing I can really gather for sure is it appears to be overdue. It looks like, in general, when it happens it is often 2 coming very close together. So it's possible there could be a richter 6 first, but just as often a 9 comes first, followed by a 6 or 7.
So no. There will be shaking, then 15 minutes later a giant tidal wave/ tsunami.
They say anywhere from 30 to 100 feet.
15 minutes warning.
I'm not super scared of the water, as much as the building, roadway and bridges being affected by a long, intense shake.
Experts are saying "everything west of I5 will be toast".
10 - 15 years ago I studied it, and not a whole lot of proactive preparation seemed to be going on. Since that time there's been a whole university seismology/ geology team of experts devoted to studying it, and they've done some really interesting studies.
However, the results appear to have increased the imminence and need for prep, not decreased it.
Hence, all the money is getting funneled into preparation, and we are all starting to prepare earthquake kits for a big one.
Last time it happened Jan 26th 1700 AD at around 9pm. It's about a (realistic) mean of anywhere from 246 - 324 years between them.
Some sources say up to about 500, but as I've looked into it deeper, that doesn't seem to be a very realistic mean.
Especially if you look at the patterns the last 10,000 years.
I'm still in the process of learning more about rumblings and predictability. Some of what I'm learning is saying that rumblings actually aren't a good indicator, because they kind of let steam out of the pot. Whereas silence, and no rumblings, is more of a predictor of something coming; more pressure building up. I've barely scratched the surface so far though (lol no pun intended there). I'm doing a total deep dive on this, so more will be revealed.
Omg sorry for the book.