It does. It's familiar, but you put it very well.
Though, if the stats above are to be believed, only the 1/3 of those "referred to prosecutors" don't result in conviction. It seems as if the DAs are taking the cases that get to them, but they may be discouraging the police from ever making the referrals or arrests? I've certainly heard many cases of the police discouraging victims from pushing forward with horror stories of the impact of exposure, the risk that the accused may be found innocent, inability to protect the victim, etc.
I'm always very skeptical of sex crime stats just because of the wide variations in the number. Just look at the enormous gap between the number of rapes reported by the FBI and the number reported by the CDC. Like we talked about in another thread, UCR data is far from infallible. Even the FBI warns against drawing conclusions based only on the annual UCR reports because there are just too many holes in the reporting system. And even the very definition of rape varies by jurisdiction. For example, the feebs only count it as rape if there is penetration, while in Florida, sexual battery only requires contact between genitals (because a lot of rapists have trouble getting it up, so there is no penile penetration).
With convictions, again the stats have wide variations, but BJS puts it about 35 percent.
Quoting: "The probability that a defendant would eventually be convicted of the original felony charge was highest for those charged with a driving-related offense (64%), murder (60%), or drug trafficking (55%). The lowest probability was for those charged with rape (35%) and assault (33%)."
Nationally, the average conviction rate for felonies in general is about 65-70 percent. So if, and against I stress
if, the number above is accurate for sex crimes convictions, that means rape cases end in conviction about half as often as the typical felony. That's terrible - a prosecutor with a 35 percent conviction record would soon be looking for a new job.
I don't know for certain, but I would be willing to bet the conviction rate for sex crimes in federal court are much higher. The reason is that federal court rules are stacked against the defendant from the get-go, resulting in an average conviction rate for all federal cases that is somewhere in the high 90s.
On prosecutors taking or not taking cases, the way it works for felonies in many, probably most, jurisdictions is that the law enforcement investigators work the case, then refer it to the state attorney (what we call the DA in Florida) for review.
A lot of times, the state attorney will amend the charges, often downgrading them to something they think they can prove. That's why cops often do what's called "stacking the charges," which basically just means adding a bunch of charges in hopes that at least one or two will survive the review.
Ultimately, it's the prosecutor, not the cops, who decides if an arrest will even be made.
Then the prosecutor makes a decision about whether to take it to trial, offer a plea or nolle prosse it. The decision whether to go to trial depends heavily on the prosecutor and the political climate in that particular state attorney's office. Many prosecutors I've known were willing to chance it at trial. A few had such a hard-on for violent crime, they would take anything to trial. And there've been a few really timid ones, but the cops spread the word about them pretty quickly and avoid taking them cases, if possible.
Still, the majority of prosecutors will only take a case to trial if it has high chance of winning, partly out of concern for their careers but also because a lot of them believe, rightly, that it is an irresponsible waste of public resources to try a case that is a likely loser.
With rape cases being so difficult to prove, yeah, prosecutors scrutinize them extremely closely before giving the green light on an arrest, and even more when deciding whether to take it to trial. They just have to.
With the cops and rape victims, man that is a real crap-shoot. I mentioned somewhere else that when I first started working in Miami back in the 90s, the sex crimes unit at the city PD was known as the 'Pussy Posse," which shows you how seriously they took their jobs. Other cops take it much, much more seriously. I knew a female sergeant who ran a sex crimes unit in another town in Florida who would literally kick your ass if she heard you making light of a rape case.
Many investigators think it is very important to explain to the victim what she will have to go through if she presses a case, and I agree with them. Rape cases depend on the victim more than any other major felony, so the victim has to be rock-solid all the way to the end. The process is brutal, and if they aren't prepared for it, they will crumble and the case will fall apart. It's not a matter of discouraging her from moving forward, but of doing the right thing and responsibly informing her.
Now, that said, yes, there are cops who will try to talk a victim out of going ahead for various reasons. I worked a private case once where the assigned investigator actively discouraged the victim from pressing because the suspect was a minor local somebody that the cop admired. His work, or lack of it, tainted the case enough that it tanked and the victim had to take the case civil, where she won.
One thing, though, that you rarely see on TV (because it isn't sexy, I guess) is that a lot of law enforcement agencies have victim advocate units that are supposed to prevent just this sort of thing. Victim advocates are trained social workers who are assigned to the victims in violent crime cases and are there specifically to hold the victim's hand and to act as a buffer between the victim and the system. They usually roll to the crime scene or the hospital, so they're part of the case from the start. In my experience, victim advocates work very closely with the investigators, in the same office, and tend to be fiercely protective of their victims. They are the ones who do the most to prepare a victim for what is going to happen in the court process - and they make sure cops don't do stupid shit like try to discourage a rape victim.
Man, I always end up writing
way more than I intended.
Hope it helped.
There has also always been people who exaggerate things so I don't see your point. I have never said that bad things never happen. They ofc. do and it's a problem. The step from admitting that to saying we live in a rape culture is, however, quite big.
You call your pov (because that's what it is) "reality" and that I'm full of shit. Sure, if that's the approach you like to have I guess further discussion will take us nowhere. I choose to see it as we have different opinions.
Have a nice day
@kylexy I call my POV on this topic "reality" for the same reason climate change is considered reality in the scientific community - because there is widespread consensus from the people in the best positions to know that it is actually happening. Just the fact that so many men want to shout down women who talk about rape culture is evidence of the very thing.
The "full of shit" thing wasn't directed at you. I was referring to people from a particular group who deny something like racism or rape culture is happening to their group...especially the ones who then allow themselves to be used as puppets by those who would prefer to maintain the status quo. And yes, they
are full of shit.