I'll shit over anyone that tries blocking a referendum on freedom. I don't have nice things to say about Madrid over Catalonia or Tallahassee over the Conch Republic. Obama just happened to be the president that crossed the ocean to flex on the UK.
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UK leaves the EU. What's does this mean for the UK??
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I'll shit over anyone that tries blocking a referendum on freedom. I don't have nice things to say about Madrid over Catalonia or Tallahassee over the Conch Republic. Obama just happened to be the president that crossed the ocean to flex on the UK.
Their PM resigned, because he didn't think he was the one to lead the UK onto the next phase, he was a strong supporter of the stay camp. Think it shows some class and respect for the vote, and helps the country move on quickly. It sets a very good example for democratic leaders too, about not holding onto power when it is not in the interest of your country.
I suspect the main impact will be more of a global talk about migration, sovereignty, and security versus economic wealth/ growth. For the US it will highlight their own recent concerns. The US will want to keep any debt to Europe/ UK under control, but other than that it should be business as usual in your part of the world.
This is a really informative post!
Can I ask you to expand on the risk issue and why you consider it okay to leave. I assume you are aware of the EU's ludicrously one-sided stance on trade agreements, with Switzerland for example.
ThePrincessLuxy
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Truth is, nobody does. Economist are, for all intents and purposes, theoretical scientists. It's why you see economists disagreeing all the time. It's also why there's "Doom-N-Gloom" pitched every time there's major catalyst. There's always one camp that will believe nothing positive can come from said catalyst. Granted, all hypothesis are supported in one way or another, so you've got to give all theories some weight, but at the end of the day you got to acknowledge that all claims are theoretical and nobody will really know until someone pulls the trigger on change.
Like all science, you also need to look at who's sponsoring / performing the studies as well. Cherry-picked facts / results is a major thing in many scientific fields. Don't think this exists with economists? Check out Amendment 69 in Colorado, which is the same act as Sanders Medicare-For-All, except 100% documented. Really interesting seeing how Gerald Friedman actually got his numbers.
Really, I didn't even bother looking at much of the opinions of economists in this case. I watched the Grexit and Catalonia real closely (up until it was apparent there would be no revolution) and both times, it read more like propaganda than economic science. I kind of just assumed the Brexit rhetoric would be a lot of the same. Almost tempted to go out and buy a Mini Cooper just to prove that their goofy little cars will still be sold in our country.
I awoke on Friday morning to see the news that the vote had went the way of the Leave campaign and I just thought... oh fuck! 
Personally, I identify as Scottish, British and European, so I voted to remain, as did most of my fellow Scots... every single City and county in Scotland voted to stay.
At the moment, it's still too early to tell what the long term effect of Brexit will be... there are too many variables. Most pundits are watching how the financial markets are reacting and looking to see when they will get their pants on straight and settle down. Give it a week or two till the dust settles, the pound levels off and maybe things will be clearer. Well... we hope it will! The next few weeks will be, shall I say... interesting.
To further muddy the waters, I see someone started an online petition on Friday morning to get a motion debated in Parliament for a second referendum to be carried out. That needed 100,00 sigs to be even considered for attention, but I see it has already crossed 1,000,000 sigs a few hours ago and still rising. Apparently the server is crashing under the weight of connection attempts. So, maybe it ain't yet over till the fat lady sings...
I watched that edition of Newsnight on Friday evening... as it was crowbarred in the middle of my Glasto viewing... and I thought the Barnsley piece was a bit disturbing. You would have thought that we had just escaped the tyranny of a military Junta to hear some of those interviews. However, the studio interview with Prof David Starkey was an eye opener... what a misogynistic arrogant prat! Nice to see Paris Lees take none of his bullshit and put him back in his box.
On a lighter note, I see that there are already moves to cut transport links with Europe through the Channel Tunnel...
j/k
Personally, I identify as Scottish, British and European, so I voted to remain, as did most of my fellow Scots... every single City and county in Scotland voted to stay.
At the moment, it's still too early to tell what the long term effect of Brexit will be... there are too many variables. Most pundits are watching how the financial markets are reacting and looking to see when they will get their pants on straight and settle down. Give it a week or two till the dust settles, the pound levels off and maybe things will be clearer. Well... we hope it will! The next few weeks will be, shall I say... interesting.
To further muddy the waters, I see someone started an online petition on Friday morning to get a motion debated in Parliament for a second referendum to be carried out. That needed 100,00 sigs to be even considered for attention, but I see it has already crossed 1,000,000 sigs a few hours ago and still rising. Apparently the server is crashing under the weight of connection attempts. So, maybe it ain't yet over till the fat lady sings...
I watched that edition of Newsnight on Friday evening... as it was crowbarred in the middle of my Glasto viewing... and I thought the Barnsley piece was a bit disturbing. You would have thought that we had just escaped the tyranny of a military Junta to hear some of those interviews. However, the studio interview with Prof David Starkey was an eye opener... what a misogynistic arrogant prat! Nice to see Paris Lees take none of his bullshit and put him back in his box.
On a lighter note, I see that there are already moves to cut transport links with Europe through the Channel Tunnel...
j/k
On a lighter note, I see that there are already moves to cut transport links with Europe through the Channel Tunnel...View attachment 63792
Trump would be so proud of that wall!
Those interviews you referenced, they happen to be on YouTube? Not familiar with the people or shows you referenced, but would be very interested in watching it.
It was on BBC 2 Newsnight... Puffin linked the Barnsley Youtube clip earlier... this is the Starkey one...
Tell me more about this 2nd Scottish referendum. Do you support it? Do you think it'll happen? Will Scotland try to rejoin the EU if they separate from the UK?
If you guys want to leave the UK, you've got my full support!
The problem is that you are looking at "UK". Just look at England instead and look at the effects that the split will have: Scotland is already looking into redoing their independence referendum since they feel their desires aren't being heard by Westminster, there's talks/rumours of Northern Ireland likely breaking away from the UK and possibly reuniting with Ireland.
Plus, the UK economy as a whole is heavily dependent on good/easy access to other markets ( https://www.theguardian.com/busines...4/uk-economy-seven-things-need-to-know-ons-g7 ) , so I completely expect their GDP to drop *a lot* for the next decade.
Guy
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The 1st Scottish referendum held in 2014 failed because many of the questions that the public were asking had remained unanswered by the Scottish Nationalists (SNP). They were unable to give concrete data to the Scottish people on important issues like defence, taxation or even a new national currency. There were too many holes in the SNP argument for a split away from the UK to succeed and the population voted to stay as a result. Now, if there is a second referendum on the topic of Scotland breaking away from the UK, I still don't know if they will have resolved any of those pertinent issues which caused it to fail last time. If it were to happen... I'm still using the term "if" rather than when... it's likely there would be maybe a year to 18 months before it would take place.
Even assuming Scotland were to completely sever political ties with the rest of the UK, that in itself would lead on to additional problems as regards the position Great Britain holds as leader of the Commonwealth of Nations (formerly called the British Commonwealth). Australia, as of Friday, are already voicing concerns about wishing to leave the Commonwealth should Scotland successfully break away, citing that the term Great Britain would no longer apply as the UK would be fragmented. It is to be expected that others would follow suit if Australia left.
So, it's still a bit complicated. A bit like a pebble has been thrown into a pond... and everyone is watching the ripples.
So the EU/U.K. Were all border less? Meaning you could just drive to one and hang out there without needing a passport. Or does it mean border less in the sense that you could pack up and move there without having to become a legal citizen of said country. Which would be similar to an American driving to the next state over- not a big deal.
If something changes, which I've gathered it may change does that mean that people no longer can just pack up and move "state to state" - is this the part that effects the immigration issues?
Is thiis going to potentially force people who have moved freely in the past to become citizens in the place that they've settled?
If something changes, which I've gathered it may change does that mean that people no longer can just pack up and move "state to state" - is this the part that effects the immigration issues?
Is thiis going to potentially force people who have moved freely in the past to become citizens in the place that they've settled?
The UK is (for the next two years) and was part of the EU so implemented free movement of labour. That meant people coming from other EU countries did not need a visa to get through passport control at ports and airports, but did still need a passport or identity card from an EU member country (I'm ignoring the situation with countries outside the EU) and could remain indefinitely here and work here without a visa. Other countries in the EU are part of something called the Schengen agreement which means there are no passport controls at their borders with other Schengen agreement countries, but there are on their external borders to non-EU or non-Schengen countries.
We don't know what will happen for people coming from the EU to the UK or vice versa yet. The vote means that the government will trigger article 50 which begins a "divorce" process between the EU and UK and new agreements will have to be drawn up concerning trade, immigration and lots of other things. The process is unlikely to be started until the Conservative party elects a new leader (and therefore also a new Prime Minister, as they are the party with a parliamentary majority).
We also don't know what will happen to people from EU countries already here, or people from the UK already living in the EU. Some have suggested nothing will change for them due to the Vienna Convention of 1969, but that applies to agreements between states, membership of the EU is an agreement between one state and a political entity that is not a state, the it can also be argued that the Convention does not apply. This is another "wait and see".
Plenty of people that voted to leave were motivated more to give a snub to politicians (both at Westminster and at Brussels) than thinking it was a good idea to leave the EU. Not all, almost certainly not even a majority, but a sizeable minority are just fed up with them and wanted to make a protest by voting against how they had been told to vote. Had voting gone on party lines, with more than half of Conservative MPs, almost all Labour and Liberal MPs and the same for the nationalists all wanting to remain in the EU, it should have been a walkover for remain. That it wasn't shows how disaffected people are with polticians in general, but on this issue in particular.
This issue in particular because in the almost 30 years since I've been old enough to vote (yes, I'm old
) no mainstream party has stood on any platform other than continued EU membership and none have put any of the major treaties (Maastricht, Lisbon, etc) to a public vote despite the constitutional changes they entailed. There is a massive feeling of disconnection from the democratic process on this subject amongst people my age and older because there has been no way to exercise a choice at the ballot box. The rise of UKIP and the amount of votes they got at the last General Election is a testament to this. They are no more than a single issue pressure group but they got a really significant share of the vote.It is a snub to the politicians at Brussels because when David Cameron went to renegotiate based on the concerns of the public he was met by intransigence. They seemingly totally failed to understand the depth of feeling here about a wide range of issues relating to the EU and made no significant movement to address them. Had a better deal been agreed, the result could have been different, but they wouldn't even stop the completely barking mad process of exported child benefit.
If that all makes me sound like I voted to leave, I didn't. Despite all that is wrong with the EU I very much want us to stay in and see it reformed, so voted that way. I believe it is better for us to co-operate with our European neighbours, that we have more in common culturally with them than (say) the USA despite the language differences and that continued membership offers greater opportunities in the future to today's children. I was deeply saddened when I awoke to the result on Friday morning, both for my country and on a personal level for my friend from another EU country, who has lived and worked here over two decades and says she no longer feels welcome in her adopted home
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Of course, now that the UK may no longer be a part of Europe, some of the headquarters of multinationals aswel as some financial institutions and banks may leave the UK and move to Ireland or the Netherlands or Germany, weakening the UK economy even further.
A lot of what went wrong in the UK the last 30 years has been blamed on Europe, as politicians have constantly been lying to the public as to what Europe actually has been responsible for.
The same is happening here in the Netherlands. Whenever an unpleasant law is being billed, politicians say 'Europe made us'.. which is usually far from the truth.
No European law would stop any employer from raising wages if they wanted to.. but sure, blame Europe for it never happening, and not the greed of said employers.
but now to the real politics behind all this: Conservative America, Russia and China all fear a powerful European union for a plethora of reasons. Russia wants it weakened so maybe Putin can reclaim some of the countries that have split from the Soviet Union.. or perhaps create a corridor to Kaliningrad without too much opposition.
In Europe, we enjoy about 25 days of paid leave, and paid maternity leave and social structures for single mothers and all.. things sorely lacking in the US.. and.. a strong Europe can negotiate deals with the US as equals ( TTIP comes to mind.. which we Europeans do not want in this form).
It is no coincidence that the 3 credit rating offices (all American) did their best to lower Greece's credibility as much as possible to attempt to create a rift between the north of Europe and the south.
Neither was it a coincidence that Donald Trump, of all people, was so content with the result of the vote. (Note that no European bank will ever lend money to Trump for him and his halfassed plans being big liabilities.. so revenge motif?)
Rupert Murdoch also had a hand in the Brexit campaign. All the media to his disposal (and he has way too many) hinted towards an exit.
Similar people fund the Dutch PVV (similar to UKIP) and/ or other nationalistic movements to break up the EU so they can force their trade deals upon us.
A lot of what went wrong in the UK the last 30 years has been blamed on Europe, as politicians have constantly been lying to the public as to what Europe actually has been responsible for.
The same is happening here in the Netherlands. Whenever an unpleasant law is being billed, politicians say 'Europe made us'.. which is usually far from the truth.
No European law would stop any employer from raising wages if they wanted to.. but sure, blame Europe for it never happening, and not the greed of said employers.
but now to the real politics behind all this: Conservative America, Russia and China all fear a powerful European union for a plethora of reasons. Russia wants it weakened so maybe Putin can reclaim some of the countries that have split from the Soviet Union.. or perhaps create a corridor to Kaliningrad without too much opposition.
In Europe, we enjoy about 25 days of paid leave, and paid maternity leave and social structures for single mothers and all.. things sorely lacking in the US.. and.. a strong Europe can negotiate deals with the US as equals ( TTIP comes to mind.. which we Europeans do not want in this form).
It is no coincidence that the 3 credit rating offices (all American) did their best to lower Greece's credibility as much as possible to attempt to create a rift between the north of Europe and the south.
Neither was it a coincidence that Donald Trump, of all people, was so content with the result of the vote. (Note that no European bank will ever lend money to Trump for him and his halfassed plans being big liabilities.. so revenge motif?)
Rupert Murdoch also had a hand in the Brexit campaign. All the media to his disposal (and he has way too many) hinted towards an exit.
Similar people fund the Dutch PVV (similar to UKIP) and/ or other nationalistic movements to break up the EU so they can force their trade deals upon us.
schlmoe
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Being on the wrong side of democracy does suck.... do love how the far right commentators always makes it look so hilarious...super entertaining with a good hint of truth as always.
Being on the wrong side of democracy does suck.... do love how the far right commentators always makes it look so hilarious...super entertaining with a good hint of truth as always.
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I very much doubt we will get another one. Westminster would have to allow it which I doubt they will, and if they don't it will need to go to court. I know you weren't asking me, but personally I was all for an independent Scotland before. Now I'm not I'm totally against another referendum. We voted to stay and we should leave it like that. If Scotland were to leave the U.K. Now we would be royally fucked in the ass. I personally think it's a shit thing to pull literally the second after the vote came in. Talk about taking advantage of the fall out lol.
At the end of the day it means jack shit that the majority of Scotland voted to stay. This was a uk wide vote, and everyone in Scotland was voting as a Brittish person NOT Scottish. The U.K. Voted out and out we are. Time to leave it at that and see what happens, it could very well be the best descision after all.
Phew that's me done.
Was asking anyone in the country that could provide 1st-hand insight, so that question was totally open and directed to you, too
FluffyGalore
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Lol good didn't want it to go to waste.Was asking anyone in the country that could provide 1st-hand insight, so that question was totally open and directed to you, too
Guy
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I know that because I'm American my voice doesn't really count on this issue. But I will state my opinion on it. I think that Scotland and Northern Ireland should leave the UK. I believe that the U.K is unfairly dominated by England. Case in point: When Americans hear the words British people, they always think of the people that live in England.
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FluffyGalore
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If we left we would be in dire straights financially especially with the U.K. Out of the EU. It's not unfairly dominated by Englad. The SNP currently hold 56 seats at Westminster so we are represented. We also have our own government. If Americans assume that Britain means England then that is unfortunately ignorance on their part (and I am assuming not all Americans are this daft). Britain is also made up of England, Scotland, Northen Ireland and Wales. 4 countries not one. Your point of us leaving due to Americans thinking Britain is England is a pretty poor point and there are many other factors that contribute to us either staying or leaving the UK, which are a hell of a lot more important.
Guy
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l already knew that the UK is made up of those 4 countries and that they have their own governments. But clearly England and Wales unfairly dominated in the UK's decision to leave the EU. It's not okay that you guys are going to be forced to leave the EU because of Islamophobia in those two countries.
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