Well this is going rather off of the trail here but very briefly: First, it's partly about having proportion regarding the economic significance of smuggling. You don't have to be an expert on organised crime for this, just a recognition that the market for illegal drugs or arms or counterfeit goods may be huge and enrich some people who do it but it really is a very small fraction of economic activity. For instance, one can infer that people in the EU spend more on cut flowers than they do on cocaine without needing a market research report in front of them.
Also, proximity and contiguous borders are not required for smuggling, as evidenced from fentanyl precursors from southern China and overdose epidemics in Ohio. Finally, the dead obvious that a hot war that is disrupting daily life disrupts everything.
Sorry, Dan, I don't mean to be overly critical and I fully appreciate that you value looking beyond the public explanation or rationale for events to the real reasons and motivations. I'm just saying that organised crime isn't one of them here. I hope my reasoning makes sense.